Greece, markets satisfied by EU-IMF Greek debt deal

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The Greek government and financial markets were cheered on Tuesday by an agreement between euro zone finance ministers and the International Monetary Fund to reduce Greece's debt, paving the way for the release of urgently needed aid loans.

The deal, clinched at the third attempt after weeks of wrangling, removes the biggest risk of a sovereign default in the euro zone for now, ensuring the near-bankrupt country will stay afloat at least until after a 2013 German general election.

"Tomorrow, a new day starts for all Greeks," Prime Minister Antonis Samaras told reporters at 3 a.m. in Athens after staying up to follow the tense Brussels negotiations.

After 12 hours of talks, international lenders agreed on a package of measures to reduce Greek debt by more than 40 billion euros, projected to cut it to 124 percent of gross domestic product by 2020.

In an additional new promise, ministers committed to taking further steps to lower Greece's debt to "significantly below 110 percent" in 2022.

That was a veiled acknowledgement that some write-off of loans may be necessary in 2016, the point when Greece is forecast to reach a primary budget surplus, although Germany and its northern allies continue to reject such a step publicly.

Analyst Alex White of JP Morgan called it "another moment of 'creative ambiguity' to match the June (EU) Summit deal on legacy bank assets; i.e. a statement from which all sides can take a degree of comfort".

The euro strengthened, European shares climbed to near a three-week high and safe haven German bonds fell on Tuesday, after the agreement to reduce Greek debt and release loans to keep the economy afloat.

"The political will to reward the Greek austerity and reform measures has already been there for a while. Now, this political will has finally been supplemented by financial support," economist Carsten Brzeski of ING said.

PARLIAMENTARY APPROVAL

To reduce the debt pile, ministers agreed to cut the interest rate on official loans, extend the maturity of Greece's loans from the EFSF bailout fund by 15 years to 30 years, and grant a 10-year interest repayment deferral on those loans.

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said Athens had to come close to achieving a primary surplus, where state income covers its expenditure, excluding the huge debt repayments.

"When Greece has achieved, or is about to achieve, a primary surplus and fulfilled all of its conditions, we will, if need be, consider further measures for the reduction of the total debt," Schaeuble said.

Eurogroup Chairman Jean-Claude Juncker said ministers would formally approve the release of a major aid installment needed to recapitalize Greece's teetering banks and enable the government to pay wages, pensions and suppliers on December 13 - after those national parliaments that need to approve the package do so.

The German and Dutch lower houses of parliament and the Grand Committee of the Finnish parliament have to endorse the deal. Losing no time, Schaeuble said he had asked German lawmakers to vote on the package this week.

Greece will receive 43.7 billion euros in four installments once it fulfils all conditions. The 34.4 billion euro December payment will comprise 23.8 billion for banks and 10.6 billion in budget assistance.

The IMF's share, less than a third of the total, will be paid out only once a buy-back of Greek debt has occurred in the coming weeks, but IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said the Fund had no intention of pulling out of the program.

Austrian Chancellor Werner Faymann welcomed the deal but said Greece still had a long way to go to get its finances and economy into shape. Vice Chancellor Michael Spindelegger told reporters the important thing had been keeping the IMF on board.

"It had threatened to go in a direction that the IMF would exit Greek financing. This was averted and this is decisive for us Europeans," he said.

The debt buy-back was the part of the package on which the least detail was disclosed, to try to avoid giving hedge funds an opportunity to push up prices. Officials have previously talked of a 10 billion euro program to buy debt back from private investors at about 35 cents in the euro.

The ministers promised to hand back 11 billion euros in profits accruing to their national central banks from European Central Bank purchases of discounted Greek government bonds in the secondary market.

BETTER FUTURE

The deal substantially reduces the risk of a Greek exit from the single currency area, unless political turmoil were to bring down Samaras's pro-bailout coalition and pass power to radical leftists or rightists.

The biggest opposition party, the hard left SYRIZA, which now leads Samaras's center-right New Democracy in opinion polls, dismissed the deal and said it fell short of what was needed to make Greece's debt affordable.

Greece, where the euro zone's debt crisis erupted in late 2009, is proportionately the currency area's most heavily indebted country, despite a big cut this year in the value of privately-held debt. Its economy has shrunk by nearly 25 percent in five years.

Negotiations had been stalled over how Greece's debt, forecast to peak at 190-200 percent of GDP in the coming two years, could be cut to a more bearable 120 percent by 2020.

The agreed figure fell slightly short of that goal, and the IMF insisted that euro zone ministers should make a firm commitment to further steps to reduce the debt if Athens faithfully implements its budget and reform program.

The main question remains whether Greek debt can become affordable without euro zone governments having to write off some of the loans they have made to Athens.

Germany and its northern European allies have hitherto rejected any idea of forgiving official loans to Athens, but European Union officials believe that line may soften after next September's German general election.

Schaeuble told reporters that it was legally impossible for Germany and other countries to forgive debt while simultaneously giving new loan guarantees. That did not explicitly preclude debt relief at a later stage, once Greece completes its adjustment program and no longer needs new loans.

But senior conservative German lawmaker Gerda Hasselfeldt said there was no legal possibility for a debt "haircut" for Greece in the future either.

At Germany's insistence, earmarked revenue and aid payments will go into a strengthened "segregated account" to ensure that Greece services its debts.

A source familiar with IMF thinking said a loan write-off once Greece has fulfilled its program would be the simplest way to make its debt viable, but other methods such as forgoing interest payments, or lending at below market rates and extending maturities could all help.

German central bank governor Jens Weidmann has suggested that Greece could "earn" a reduction in debt it owes to euro zone governments in a few years if it diligently implements all the agreed reforms. The European Commission backs that view.

The ministers agreed to reduce interest on already extended bilateral loans in stages from the current 150 basis points above financing costs to 50 bps.

(Additional reporting by Annika Breidhardt, Robin Emmott and John O'Donnell in Brussels, Andreas Rinke and Noah Barkin in Berlin, Michael Shields in Vienna; Writing by Paul Taylor; editing by David Stamp)

23.51 | 0 komentar | Read More

Satellite photo shows increased activity at North Korean launch site

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A new satellite image shows a marked increase in activity at a North Korean missile launch site, pointing to a possible long-range ballistic missile test by Pyongyang in the next three weeks, according to satellite operator DigitalGlobe Inc.

The imagery was released days after a Japanese newspaper, the Asahi Shimbun, reported that U.S. intelligence analysts had detected moves that were seen as preparation by North Korea for a long-range missile launch as early as this month.

DigitalGlobe, which provides commercial satellite imagery to the U.S. government and foreign governments, on Monday released a new image that it said showed increased activity at North Korea's Sohae (West Sea) Satellite Launch Station.

It said the imagery showed more people, trucks and other equipment at the site, a level of activity that was consistent with preparations seen before North Korea's failed April 13 rocket launch.

"Given the observed level of activity noted of a new tent, trucks, people and numerous portable fuel/oxidizer tanks, should North Korea desire, it could possibly conduct its fifth satellite launch event during the next three weeks," DigitalGlobe said in a statement accompanying the image.

A Pentagon spokeswoman declined to comment on the reported satellite images, but said the Defense Department's position on North Korea's missile development efforts had not changed.

She urged North Korea to comply with U.N. Security Council resolutions that "require Pyongyang to suspend all activities related to its ballistic missile program in a complete, verifiable, and irreversible manner, and re-establish its moratorium on missile launching."

North Korea, which carried out nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009 and is under heavy U.N. sanctions for its atomic weapons program, has tried for years to influence major events in South Korea by waging propaganda or armed attacks. South Korea is gearing up for a presidential election on December 19.

North and South Korea have been technically at war since their 1950-53 conflict ended in a truce, not a peace treaty, and regional powers have for years been trying to rein in the North's nuclear program.

North Korea is believed to be developing a long-range ballistic missile with a range of up to 4,200 miles aimed at hitting the continental United States but the last two rocket test launches failed.

In April, under its new leader Kim Jong-un, North Korea launched a rocket that flew just a few minutes covering a little over 60 miles before crashing into the sea between South Korea and China.

(Reporting By Andrea Shalal-Esa; Editing by Cynthia Osterman and Mohammad Zargham)

23.51 | 0 komentar | Read More

France to back Palestinian U.N. status

PARIS (Reuters) - France said on Tuesday it would vote in favour of Palestinian non-member status at the United Nations, boosting Palestinian efforts to secure greater international recognition.

Frustrated that their bid for full U.N. membership last year was thwarted by U.S. opposition in the U.N. Security Council, Palestinians have launched a watered-down bid for recognition as a non-member state, similar to the status the Vatican enjoys.

The proposal, which is due to be put to the vote in the General Assembly at the end of the week, would implicitly recognize Palestinian statehood. It could also grant access to bodies such as the International Criminal Court in The Hague, where the Palestinians could file complaints against Israel.

"This Thursday or Friday, when the question is asked, France will vote yes," Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius announced in the French National Assembly, the lower house of parliament.

Abbas' bid seems certain to win approval in any vote in the 193-nation assembly. The United States say Palestinian statehood must be achieved by negotiation and has called on Abbas to return to peace talks that collapsed in 2010 over Israeli settlement construction in the occupied West Bank.

"It is only with negotiations between the two sides that we demand immediately without any preconditions that a Palestinian state can become a reality," Fabius said.

France, a member of the U.N. Security Council, had under former President Nicolas Sarkozy promised to support Abbas if he opted for the upgrade option and broke from its closest allies last year voting in favour of giving the Palestinians full membership of the U.N.'s cultural agency UNESCO.

(Reporting by John Irish; Editing by Angus MacSwan)

23.51 | 0 komentar | Read More

British court stops extradition of Iranian to U.S. in arms case

LONDON (Reuters) - A British court blocked on Tuesday the extradition of a former Iranian diplomat wanted by the United States after he was caught in a sting operation trying to export night-vision weapons' sights to Iran.

Nosratollah Tajik, 59, a former Iranian ambassador to Jordan, was arrested in London in 2006 after agents from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security posed as arms dealers seeking to sell the military kit in violation of arms embargoes.

Britain's Home Office, or interior ministry, which ordered Tajik's extradition last year, said it was disappointed by the High Court's decision and was considering an appeal.

The High Court proceedings revealed this year that the British government had tried and failed to persuade the Americans to withdraw the extradition request to avoid endangering British diplomats in Iran.

Tajik spent years fighting extradition on grounds of ill health. The courts rejected these arguments in 2008 and he then appealed to the Home Office with new medical evidence.

The Home Office rejected his appeal in November 2011 and ordered his extradition. Tajik launched new court proceedings against the Home Office's decision, culminating in Tuesday's ruling.

But the High Court hearings revealed that for almost three years while Tajik thought the Home Office was considering his medical evidence, the ministry had already decided that ill health was not a valid reason not to extradite him.

The real cause for the long delay in issuing the decision was that the British government had asked Washington to drop the extradition request. It received no response for more than two and a half years despite repeatedly raising the matter.

The court was shown correspondence between the Home Office and the Foreign Office, dating back to early 2009, that showed officials were concerned that if Tajik were extradited Britain's ambassador to Tehran could be expelled and its embassy in the Iranian capital could come under attack.

Britain's embassy in Tehran was stormed in November 2011 over sanctions imposed by London on Iran over its nuclear program. The embassy was evacuated and has been unstaffed since.

Delivering his judgment, after hearing two days of arguments last month, judge Alan Moses criticized the United States for taking so long to respond after Britain asked in early 2009 that it consider dropping the request for Tajik's extradition.

"The USA advanced no justification for choosing to reply to the United Kingdom's request in August 2011 and not much earlier, in 2009 or 2010," the judge wrote in a summary of his 20-page ruling.

"The only inference the court could draw was that it (the United States) had arrogated to itself the time for choosing when Mr Tajik should be extradited and face trial, without advancing any justification for its decision."

The judge said British law did not allow for such a stance and the matter should have been dealt with urgently. The delays in the case were in breach of British law and therefore the extradition should not take place, he said.

Tajik had been free on bail but tagged and subject to a night-time curfew pending the outcome of his legal battle.

(Reporting by Estelle Shirbon; editing by Robert Woodward)

23.51 | 0 komentar | Read More

Samples taken from Arafat corpse for poison tests

RAMALLAH, West Bank (Reuters) - Forensic experts took samples from Yasser Arafat's uncovered corpse in the West Bank on Tuesday, trying to determine if he was murdered by Israeli agents using the hard-to-trace radioactive poison, Polonium.

Palestinians witnessed the funeral of their hero and longtime leader eight years ago, but conspiracy theories surrounding his death have never been laid to rest.

Many are convinced their icon was the victim of a cowardly assassination, and may stay convinced whatever the outcome of this autopsy. But some in the city of Ramallah where he lies deplored the uncovering of his body on Tuesday.

"This is wrong. After all this time, today they suddenly want to find out the truth?" said construction worker Ahmad Yousef, 31. "They should have done it eight years ago," he said.

Arafat's body was uncovered in its grave and samples were removed without having to lift the corpse from the ground. As a result, the planned reburial ceremony with full military honors was called off.

The tomb was resealed in hours and wreaths were placed by Palestinian leaders including Prime Minister Salam Fayyad.

"The state of the body was exactly what you would expect to find for someone who has been buried for eight years. There was nothing out of the ordinary," Health Minister Hani Abdeen told a news conference.

French magistrates in August opened a murder inquiry into Arafat's death in Paris in 2004 after a Swiss institute said it had discovered high levels of polonium on clothing of his which was supplied by his widow, Suha, for a television documentary.

The head of the Palestinian investigation committee, Tawfiq Tirawi said the forensic procedure went smoothly. A Palestinian medical team took samples and gave them to each of the Swiss, French and Russian teams.

"We need proof in order to find those who are behind this assassination and take it to the ICC (International Criminal Court)," he said. "When we have proof, we will go to the ICC for it to be our first case to try those whose policy is assassinations."

RESULTS IN SPRING 2013

Jordanian doctor Abdullah al Bashir, head of the Palestinian medical committee, said about 20 samples were taken and analysis would take at least three months.

"In order to do these analyses, to check, cross-check and double cross-check, it will take several months and I don't think we'll have anything tangible available before March or April next year," said Darcy Christen, spokesman for Lausanne University Hospital in Switzerland that carried out the original tests on Arafat's clothes.

Arafat was always a freedom fighter to Palestinians but a terrorist to Israelis first, and a partner for peace only later. He led the bid for a Palestinian state through years of war and peacemaking, then died in a French hospital aged 75 after a short, mysterious illness.

No autopsy was carried out at the time, at the request of Suha, and French doctors who treated him said they were unable to determine the cause of death.

But allegations of foul play surfaced immediately, and many Palestinians pointed the finger at Israel, which confined Arafat to his West Bank headquarters in Ramallah for the final two and a half years of his life after a Palestinian uprising erupted.

Israel denies murdering him. Its leader at the time, Ariel Sharon, now lies in a coma from which he is expected never to awake. Israel invited the Palestinian leadership to release all Arafat's medical records, which were never made public following his death and still have not been opened.

Polonium, apparently ingested with food, was found to have caused the death of former Russian spy Alexander Litvinenko in London in 2006. But some experts have questioned whether Arafat could have died in this way, pointing to a brief recovery during his illness that they said was not consistent with radioactive poisoning. They also noted he did not lose all his hair.

Eight years is considered the limit to detect any traces of the fast-decaying polonium and Lausanne hospital questioned in August if it would be worth seeking any samples, if access to Arafat's body was delayed as late as "October or November."

Not all of Arafat's family agreed to the exhumation.

Arafat's widow watched her husband's uncovering on television from her house in Malta.

"This will bring closure, we will know the truth about why he died. I owe this answer to the Palestinian people, to the new generation, and to his daughter," a tearful Suha told timesofmalta.com.

(Writing by Crispian Balmer; addition reporting by Chris Scicluna in Malta; Editing by Douglas Hamilton, Tom Pfeiffer and Jason Webb)

23.51 | 0 komentar | Read More

Mursi opponents clash with police in Cairo

CAIRO (Reuters) - Opponents of President Mohamed Mursi clashed with Cairo police on Tuesday as thousands of protesters stepped up pressure on the Islamist to scrap a decree they say threatens Egypt with a new era of autocracy.

Police fired tear gas at stone-throwing youths in streets off the capital's Tahrir Square, heart of the uprising that toppled Hosni Mubarak last year. Protesters also turned out in Alexandria, Suez, Minya and cities in the Nile Delta.

A 52-year-old protester died after inhaling teargas in Cairo, the second death since last week's decree that expanded Mursi's powers and barred court challenges to his decisions.

Tuesday's protest called by leftists, liberals and other groups deepened the worst crisis since the Muslim Brotherhood politician was elected in June, and exposed a divide between the newly empowered Islamists and their opponents.

Some protesters have been camped out since Friday in the Tahrir, and violence has flared around the country, including in a town north of Cairo where a Muslim Brotherhood youth was killed in clashes on Sunday. Hundreds have been injured.

Mursi's move provoked a rebellion by judges and battered confidence in an economy struggling after two years of turmoil.

Opponents have accused Mursi of behaving like a modern-day pharaoh, a jibe long leveled at Mubarak. The United States, a benefactor to Egypt's military, has expressed concern about more turbulence in a country that has a peace treaty with Israel.

Mursi's administration has defended his decree as an effort to speed up reforms and complete a democratic transformation. Opponents say it shows he has dictatorial instincts.

"The people want to bring down the regime," protesters chanted, echoing slogans used in the anti-Mubarak uprising.

"We don't want a dictatorship again. The Mubarak regime was a dictatorship. We had a revolution to have justice and freedom," said 32-year-old Ahmed Husseini.

The protest was a show of strength by the non-Islamist opposition, whose fractious ranks have been pushed together by the crisis. Well-organized Islamists have consistently beaten more secular-minded parties at the ballot box in elections held since Mubarak was ousted in February, 2011.

MORE POWERS

Some scholars from the prestigious al-Azhar mosque and university joined Tuesday's protest, showing that Mursi and his Brotherhood have alienated some more moderate Muslims. Members of Egypt's large Christian minority also joined in.

Mursi formally quit the Brotherhood on taking office, saying he would be a president for all Egyptians, but he is still a member of its Freedom and Justice Party.

The decree issued on Thursday expanded his powers and protected his decisions from judicial review until the election of a new parliament expected in the first half of 2013.

New York-based Human Rights Watch said it gives Mursi more power than the interim military junta from which he took over.

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon noted judges challenged the decree. However, he told Austria's Die Presse newspaper: "I have also noted that Mursi wants to resolve the problem in a dialogue. I will encourage him to continue to do so."

Trying to ease tensions with judges outraged at the step, Mursi has assured Egypt's highest judicial authority that elements of the decree giving his decisions immunity would apply only to matters of "sovereign" importance. Although that should limit it to issues such as a declaration of war, experts said there was room for much broader interpretation.

In another step to avoid more confrontation, the Muslim Brotherhood canceled plans for a rival mass protest in Cairo on Tuesday to support the decree. Violence has flared in the past when both sides have taken to the streets.

But there has been no retreat on other elements of the decree, including a stipulation that the Islamist-dominated body writing a new constitution be protected from legal challenge.

"We came here to reject dictatorship and tyranny," said 50-year-old Noha Abol Fotouh. "The decree must be canceled and the constituent assembly should be reformed. All intellectuals have left it and now it is controlled by Islamists."

CRISIS

With its popular legitimacy undermined by the withdrawal of most of its non-Islamist members, the assembly faces a series of court cases from plaintiffs who claim it was formed illegally.

The new system of government to be laid out in the constitution is one of the issues at the heart of the crisis.

"The president of the republic must put his delusions to one side and undertake the only step capable of defusing the crisis: cancelling the despotic declaration," liberal commentator and activist Amr Hamzawy wrote in his column in al-Watan newspaper.

Mursi issued the decree on November 22, a day after he won U.S. and international praise for brokering an end to eight days of violence between Israel and Hamas around the Gaza Strip.

White House spokesman Jay Carney said on Monday that Mursi had played "an important role" in the truce. "Separately we've raised concerns about some of the decisions and declarations that were made on November 22," he said.

Mursi's decree was seen as targeting in part a legal establishment still largely unreformed from Mubarak's era, when the Brotherhood was outlawed.

Though both Islamists and their opponents broadly agree that the judiciary needs reform, Mursi's rivals oppose his methods.

Rulings from an array of courts this year have dealt a series of blows to the Brotherhood, leading to the dissolution of the first constitutional assembly and the lower house of parliament elected a year ago. The Brotherhood dominated both.

The judiciary blocked an attempt by Mursi to reconvene the Brotherhood-led parliament after his election victory. It also stood in the way of his attempt to sack the prosecutor general, another Mubarak holdover, in October.

In his decree, Mursi gave himself the power to sack that prosecutor and appoint a new one. In open defiance of Mursi, some judges are refusing to acknowledge that step.

One presidential source said Mursi wanted to change the make-up of the Supreme Constitutional Court, the body whose ruling that parliament was void led the house to be dissolved.

Mursi has repeatedly stated the decree will stay only until a new parliament is elected - something that can happen once the constitution is written and passed in a popular referendum.

(Additional reporting by Tom Perry, Seham Eloraby, Marwa Awad and Yasmine Saleh in Cairo and Michael Shields in Vienna; Writing by Edmund Blair and Tom Perry; Editing by Anna Willard, David Stamp and Alastair Macdonald)

23.51 | 0 komentar | Read More

Insight: Rebels seizing initiative in long war for Syria

BEIRUT (Reuters) - Rebel strikes against military bases across Syria have exposed President Bashar al-Assad's weakening grip in the north and east of the country and left his power base in Damascus vulnerable to the increasingly potent opposition forces.

Rebel fighters, who have taken at least five army and air installations in the last 10 days, are still waging an asymmetrical war against a powerful army backed by devastating air power, and predict months of conflict still lie ahead.

Their tactics are gradually choking off Assad's forces in the northern provinces of Aleppo and Idlib, as well as the eastern oil region of Deir al-Zor, while in Damascus "there is a sense that the flames are licking at the door", a diplomat in the capital said.

The steady capture of military installations and arsenals is sapping the morale of Assad's forces and also ensuring a modest supply of new weapons to relatively ill-equipped rebels whose calls for a no-fly zone -- which proved crucial in the Libyan uprising -- have been ignored.

Although they have yet to seize control of a single city, or translate their dominance in swathes of rural Syria into "liberated" territory free of air and artillery strikes, rebels say that their increasing prowess on the battlefield and growing armories have finally allowed them to take the initiative.

"The difference is that we've gone from being on the defensive to thinking and acting on the offensive. We actually have the ability to work offensively now, since we have seized enough weapons," said a fighter with Islamist battalions in Damascus province, who used the nom de guerre of Abu al-Yaman.

As Syria's 20-month uprising to overthrow Assad has dragged on, killing 40,000 people, rebel strategy has evolved from quick opportunistic attacks to slow but carefully planned campaigns of siege and attrition.

Exploiting the military expertise of military officers who have defected from Assad's army, rebels have achieved significant successes by focusing on strategic roads and supply routes as well as military bases.

GUN SHIPS

The slow progress of the fighting can conceal rebel gains, especially when fighters are forced to retreat in the face of withering retaliation from Assad's MiG warplanes and helicopter gun ships.

Fighting in the cities, however, is still a challenge.

"We have rebel sieges and army defections, and then military air raids. Then sieges and defections and raids again, in a loop," said a wearied commander from Ahrar al-Sham brigade in Aleppo, where rebels have been battling Assad's forces since late July and control about half of Syria's biggest city.

"The countryside is somewhere where we can advance more, but inside the cities I still see the battle as long and difficult. I think we need several more months."

Another fighter, from the largely rebel-held province of Idlib on the Turkish border, said the battle to "liberate the northern frontier" was going well, while progress further south near the Jordanian border was more of a challenge.

"We still have a lot of work to do. We're not about to take the country but yes, I see a lot of progress in the last month."

Unlike the toppled leaders of North Africa who were dropped by their friends when trouble started, Assad still draws strength from Russia and China and from Iran, which is believed to be supporting him with arms and cash.

Divided by personal and ideological rivalries as well as geographical and military obstacles, the mainly Sunni Muslim rebels have also struggled to show common cause since they took up arms against Assad, who is from an Alawite minority linked to Shi'ite Islam.

An opposition coalition was formed earlier this month, aiming to bridge the rifts and bring the rebels under a unified structure - a first step towards overcoming Western reluctance to arm a rebel movement which includes radical Islamists.

Ali al-Ali, a fighter in the Ahrar al-Jabal al-Wustany brigade, said the rebels were slowly overcoming their splits.

"Our attacks are getting more coordinated locally," he told Reuters by Skype from Idlib province. "On the ground we have the advantage, (Assad's) power has deteriorated on the ground."

REBEL GAINS

The cumulative effect of the rebel gains has left Assad's power concentrated in the south around Damascus and in the Mediterranean provinces of Tartous and Latakia - the heartlands of Syria's Alawites.

The capital and the coastal regions are linked by the city of Homs, which bore the brunt of fighting earlier this year as Assad's forces bombarded rebel neighborhoods to keep their grip on Syria's third-biggest city. Homs itself has now been divided between rebels and Assad's forces.

"In the north and the east (of Syria) the tide has turned against the regime," said Andrew Tabler, a Syria expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. "Where the game is much closer is along the coast, around Homs and Damascus."

The two main rebel gains of the last fortnight were the huge 46th Division army base, which sprawls over several square miles west of Aleppo, and the Mayadeen base in Deir al-Zor, which left rebels controlling 120 km (75 miles) of the Euphrates river north of the Iraqi border.

Around the capital itself, rebels have captured an air defense installation in the south of Damascus and a helicopter base situated among the eastern farmlands and towns which have been an opposition stronghold for months.

To the south-west the army has been bombarding rebels in the suburb of Daraya, determined to prevent them from holding another gateway into the capital.

The Damascus-based diplomat said Assad still had 70,000 to 80,000 soldiers stationed around the city and its outskirts. There are no clear figures for the size of the rebel brigades but they say they number tens of thousands nationwide.

In his rare televised appearances, the 47-year-old president does not look like a leader under siege. He appeared calm and relaxed in his latest meeting on Friday with the parliamentary speaker of his strongest regional ally, Iran.

Syria experts say Tehran has sent Revolutionary Guards and weapons to help Assad's military campaign and financial support to help prop up an economy reeling from a collapse in revenues and tens of billions of dollars of war damage.

They also say Lebanon's Shi'ite Muslim Hezbollah has dispatched militants to fight alongside Assad's forces - a charge Hezbollah has denied even though it has held several funerals for fighters killed performing "jihadi duties".

TRAIN CRASH

"People I have spoken to who are in touch with very senior Syrian officials report a sense of calm among generals and senior officials," the envoy in Damascus said. "I can't understand that, unless they are simply putting on a brave face".

"Every ordinary Syrian I speak to is worried. They see the train crash coming."

How soon the train crash comes is a matter of conjecture among military and political analysts who follow Syria.

The rebels themselves say their real test will come when fighters move on the capital for that final reckoning, an operation they are already planning. Some observers say the opposition may already have sleeper cells in Damascus while it tries to prepare a launch pad for attacks from outside the city.

There is no sign that rebels have the sophisticated equipment, weaponry and intelligence which would enable sleeper cells to overpower Assad's die-hard battalions, and which proved a game changer in Libya when the support of Western special forces helped topple Gaddafi after months of apparent stalemate.

But the rebels have struck deep in the capital - killing four close Assad aides in a devastating July 18 bombing.

One analyst, who asked not to be named because he remains in contact with Syrian officials, said the Syria conflict had undergone a "dramatic change in dynamics" in the last few weeks.

"If you look at the map, it hasn't changed so much. But the psychological situation is different."

"This is a regime engaged in a fighting retreat ... The more the opposition wins over regime bases, the more they acquire weapons. I think it's self-sustaining," he said, predicting a showdown within weeks.

"All this could be brought to a close, or it could lead to a multiplication of conflicts," he said voicing a widespread fear that Assad's overthrow, if it were to happen, might only be the close of the first chapter in a far longer sectarian war.

A regional security source said rebels were getting a steady flow of shoulder-held surface-to-air missiles from Saudi Arabia via Jordan.

But anxious to avoid a buildup of sophisticated weapons among militants, as happened in the 1980s in Afghanistan, the Gulf state was monitoring their use and limiting supplies.

"It's not like the rebels are being flooded with weapons," said Michael Stephens of the RUSI think-tank in Doha. "There is a gradual increase in weapons and capacity, and they are getting smarter."

(Writing by Dominic Evans; Editing by Samia Nakhoul and Giles Elgood)

23.51 | 0 komentar | Read More

Saudi authorities detain families at rights protest

JEDDAH, Saudi Arabia (Reuters) - Saudi security forces detained dozens of men, women and children on Tuesday after they staged a rare protest outside a human rights group's office in Riyadh to demand the release of jailed relatives, activists said.

Protests are banned in the conservative kingdom, a U.S. ally that shows little tolerance towards dissent. But relatives have occasionally gathered outside government offices in the world's largest oil exporter to demand the release of prisoners they say have been held for long periods without trial.

"They detained six children, 23 women and around 30 men," Ali Alhattab, an activist told Reuters from the Saudi capital.

Activists posted pictures on social media showing a crowd surrounded by security forces. Reuters could not verify the images.

Saudi Arabia, which has been a target for al Qaeda attacks, says the prisoners are all held on security grounds. Activists say some are also detained for purely political activity and have never been charged.

An Interior Ministry spokesman did not immediately comment on Tuesday's incident.

The government has said in the past that prisoners accused of "terrorism-related" charges were undergoing a fair judicial process any relatives who protest are stopped and dealt with according to legal procedures.

Last month the kingdom convicted and sentenced 15 men to between three and 15 days in jail on charges of staging a sit-down demonstration outside a prison in September. The court also handed the men suspended sentences of between 50 and 90 lashes and suspended jail terms of between two and five months.

The incident was condemned by Human Rights Watch which said the Saudi Bureau of Investigation and Prosecution had charged a total of 19 men with 'instigating chaos and sedition' and 'gathering illegally'.

"I believe that such actions worsen the situation. Intimidating and confronting the families will not make them back down on their requests for fair trials," Alhattab said.

Saudi Arabia has not seen the kind of protests that toppled four Arab heads of state since the start of last year but small demonstrations have taken place from time to time in the Eastern Province, where the Sunni Muslim kingdom's Shi'ite minority live. Shi'ites complain of discrimination, which Saudi Arabia denies.

(Reporting by Asma Alsharif; Editing by Sami Aboudi and Angus MacSwan)

23.51 | 0 komentar | Read More

Syria launches air strikes as combat rages in Damascus

BEIRUT (Reuters) - Syrian war planes attacked towns in the country's north and east and killed at least five civilians in a strike on an olive oil press as fighting raged in the capital Damascus on Tuesday, opposition activists said.

Rebels battled government forces in the Damascus suburb of Kfar Souseh, on the edge of the center of the capital, said the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a British-based monitoring group.

The latest fighting followed recent battlefield gains by the rebels in their struggle to topple President Bashar al-Assad although it was far from clear if a strategic breakthrough was likely any time soon.

Syrian state television said that two people were killed and four wounded in a "terrorist suicide car bomb" in Artouz, near Damascus. The Observatory said the explosion was caused by a car bomb next to a military police checkpoint.

Near the Old City, a second car bomb killed one person and blew the legs off another man, according to opposition activist Samir al-Shami. He said it was unclear if the car, a white Toyota, was rigged by Assad loyalists or rebels.

The rebels also shot down a military helicopter on Tuesday, according to video footage posted on YouTube which showed a missile hitting the aircraft.

The Local Coordinating Committee opposition group said the Free Syrian Army had downed a helicopter near the Sheikh Suleiman army base, 30 km (20 miles) northwest of the contested city of Aleppo.

Combat also took place in the Baba Amr district of Homs city, an area that was overrun by government troops in February, as well as in Aleppo, Deir al-Zor, Deraa, Idlib province and Hama province, the Observatory said.

A government jet dropped barrel bombs - cylinders packed with explosives and petrol - at the Abu Hilal olive oil press, 2 km (1.2 miles) west of Idlib city, activist Tareq Abdelhaq said.

At least five people were killed and five wounded in the attack, the Observatory said. Abdelhaq said at least 20 were killed and 50 wounded.

The victims were civilians waiting to press their olives for oil, according to activists, who acknowledged rebel fighters were in the area.

An estimated 40,000 people have been killed in Syria since March last year when protests inspired by the Arab Spring broke out against Assad, whose family has ruled autocratically for four decades. Assad has relied on fighter jets, helicopters and artillery to subdue the revolt, which started peacefully but has become a full-scale civil war.

Rebels have captured at least five army and air force installations in the past 10 days, putting pressure on Assad's forces in Aleppo and Idlib and the eastern oil region of Deir al-Zor.

The opposition are calling for international military aid, particularly against air attacks, but Western powers who support the uprising are wary of radical Islamist units among the rebels.

However, some anti-aircraft equipment has been seized from captured army bases.

AIR STRIKES

The government also launched air strikes on Deir al-Zor city and on the strategic town of Maraat al-Numan in Idlib province on Tuesday.

The rebel takeover of Maarat al-Numan last month effectively cut the main north-south highway, a route for Assad to move troops from the Damascus to Aleppo, Syria's largest city where rebels have taken a foothold.

Most foreign powers have condemned Assad, and Britain, France and Gulf countries have recognized an umbrella opposition group, the Syrian National Coalition, as the sole representative of the Syrian people.

But Assad has been able to rely on his allies, especially regional powerhouse Iran, to withstand the international challenge. Russia and China have also vetoed three United Nations Security Council resolutions that condemn Assad.

Nonprofit news website ProPublica reported yesterday that Russia sent 240 tonnes of banks notes to Damascus this summer. U.S. and European sanctions include a ban on minting Syrian banknotes.

(Editing by Jason Webb and Angus MacSwan)

23.51 | 0 komentar | Read More

Gazans say "Thank you Iran" after Israel conflagration

GAZA (Reuters) - Gazans offered very public thanks to Iran on Tuesday for helping them in this month's fight against Israel, when Iranian-made missiles were fired out of the Palestinian enclave towards Jerusalem and Tel Aviv.

"Thank you Iran", said large billboards on three major road junctions in the Gaza Strip - the first time there has been such public acknowledgement of Iran's role in the arming of Islamic militants in the tiny territory.

The message was written in Arabic, English, Hebrew and Farsi. The posters also depicted the Iranian Fajr 5 rockets that were used for the first time to target Israel's two largest population centers. No one was injured in the attacks.

The billboards were not signed, but a senior official with the militant group Islamic Jihad, Khader Habib, said it was only natural to show gratitude for Iran's role in the conflict.

"Iranian rockets struck at Tel Aviv. They reached out to Jerusalem. Therefore it was our duty to thank those who helped our people," he told Reuters.

"We have distinctive, good relations with Iran and such a relationship will continue as long as Iran supports the Palestinian people and backs up the resistance," he added.

Israel launched an air offensive on November 14 with the stated aim of stopping Gaza militants from firing rockets at its southern towns and cities.

About 170 Palestinians, more than half of them civilians, died in the fighting that ended in a ceasefire last Wednesday. Six Israelis were also killed, four of them civilians.

Israel has always asserted that arch-foe Tehran supplied Gaza with weapons, but until the latest conflict both Iran and Gaza's dominant Islamist group Hamas had side-stepped the issue, acknowledging only financial backing and warm political ties.

During the eight-day conflagration, the Iranian speaker of parliament, Ali Larijani, said Iran was "honored" to have provided Gaza with military aid. Following the ceasefire, Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal thanked Iran for arms and funding.

The public statements appeared aimed at dispelling speculation that the mainly Sunni Muslim Gaza Strip was shutting the door on Shi'ite Iran and turning instead to neighboring Egypt for support and protection.

Israeli analyst Meir Javedanfar said he thought the Iranians would regret telling the world they supplied Hamas with arms.

"Now that such high-ranking officials openly admit to having supplied weapons to groups in Gaza, the job of isolating Iran will be even easier than before," said Javedanfar, an Iranian expert at the Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) in Herzliya.

Israel and many Western countries say Iran is developing nuclear weapons and have imposed increasingly stringent sanctions on the Islamic Republic to get it to halt its uranium enrichment drive. Tehran says its atomic program is peaceful.

Hamas, which has ruled Gaza since 2007, refuses to recognize Israel's right to exist and is shunned as a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union.

(Editing by Crispian Balmer and Alison Williams)

23.51 | 0 komentar | Read More